May I calculate the possibility ?

"モーリン"さんは[url:kb:904]で書きました:
〉Hi there. This is Moring.

Hello, Moring. This is Banana. So long not to see you.

〉Sorry for using long title.

I don't mind.

〉I'm reading Oliver Twist by Dickens. And its style affects my writing style.

Ohhhhhhhh. Your comment! I wanted to get and read Oliver Twist.

〉Today I visited Ogikubo for taking dental treatment, and got a train
〉of Yamanote line at Shinagawa station.
(TYUURYAKU)
〉Do you believe this? But this is true.
〉I wonder how much possibility exits for this.

May I caliculate ?

1. You must catch the same train.

The possibility is

a)On Yamanote-sen, we can catch train in each two minites.
b)It takes about one-hour for train to go round Yamanote-sen.
c) 60minites / 2 minites/train = 30 trains
So 30 trains runs on Yamanote-sen.
d)When you get a train at random, the possibility is 1/30=3.3%
to get certain train, which you got.

So the possibility that you must catch the same train is 3.3%.

2. You must catch the same SHARYOU of the same train.

a)I think, each train on Yamanote-sen has 10 SHARYOUs.
b)So when you get the same train, the possibility that you get
on the same SHARYOU is 10%.
c)So the possibility that you got the same train and you got on
the same SHARYOU is

3.3% * 10% = 0.33%

3.Oh! I miss that Yamanote-sen has MIGIMAWARI and HIDARIMAWARI.

It is 50%.

4.So THE POSSIBILITY is 0.167%(=0.33% * 50%)

It is 1/60,000.

〉Thank you for reading!
〉Happy Reading & Writing.
〉See you.
〉Moring

Happy possibility 1/60,000!
See you in the Yamanote-sen train someday.

Banana

Hi Banana-san.

〉Hello, Moring. This is Banana. So long not to see you.
Yes I missed the last OHTEMACHI off-party.

〉〉I'm reading Oliver Twist by Dickens. And its style affects my writing style.
〉Ohhhhhhhh. Your comment! I wanted to get and read Oliver Twist.
I got it from Web (Virginia Univ. Library). Then it's free.
I want to watch the movie. And it will be end on this weekend at a movie theatre in my area. Then I'll go to theatre if I couln't finish to read it.

〉May I caliculate ?
Yes please.

〉1. You must catch the same train.
〉 The possibility is
〉 a)On Yamanote-sen, we can catch train in each two minites.
〉 b)It takes about one-hour for train to go round Yamanote-sen.
〉 c) 60minites / 2 minites/train = 30 trains
〉 So 30 trains runs on Yamanote-sen.
〉 d)When you get a train at random, the possibility is 1/30=3.3%
〉 to get certain train, which you got.
〉 So the possibility that you must catch the same train is 3.3%.
〉2. You must catch the same SHARYOU of the same train.
〉 a)I think, each train on Yamanote-sen has 10 SHARYOUs.
〉 b)So when you get the same train, the possibility that you get
〉 on the same SHARYOU is 10%.
〉 c)So the possibility that you got the same train and you got on
〉 the same SHARYOU is
〉 3.3% * 10% = 0.33%
〉3.Oh! I miss that Yamanote-sen has MIGIMAWARI and HIDARIMAWARI.
〉 It is 50%.
〉4.So THE POSSIBILITY is 0.167%(=0.33% * 50%)
〉 It is 1/60,000.
Thank you for trying fun things.
But I think you forgot one more thing.
I wrote "I got in the same car of the same train from the same door".
If one car have three doors at one side, the calculation is following:
THE POSSIBILITY = 1/30 * 1/10 * 1/2 * 1/3 = 1/1,800

Oh, this is bigger than your result of calcuration.
Did you made mistake or did I?

〉〉Thank you for reading!
〉〉Happy Reading & Writing.
〉〉See you.
〉〉Moring

〉Happy possibility 1/60,000!
〉See you in the Yamanote-sen train someday.

〉Banana
See you.
Moring

Hi, Moring and Banana. This is Hamako.

〉I'm reading Oliver Twist by Dickens. And its style affects my writing style.

Oliver Twist! I got the audio book on January.
But I don't get the PB yet. (I love reading books on paper.)

〉I want to watch the movie. And it will be end on this weekend at a movie theatre in my area. Then I'll go to theatre if I couln't finish to read it.

I'll watch it on DVD.
Can you tell me your impression when you watch the movie or finish reading it?


〉You might wonder why I knew the train was the same one. The answer
〉 was I saw a same person who was in the train. But it was about
〉two and half hours ago when I got in this train at first time.
〉Why he, actually it's a young man, was on the train so long?
〉Yes, he was asleep, asleep indeed, and snoring loudly.

Really? Was he OK?
It's hard to believe that he can sleep for such a long time on a train!
Humm...I guess that a youth has a power.


〉〉May I caliculate ?
〉Yes please.

〉〉4.So THE POSSIBILITY is 0.167%(=0.33% * 50%)
〉〉 It is 1/60,000.

〉Thank you for trying fun things.
〉But I think you forgot one more thing.
〉I wrote "I got in the same car of the same train from the same door".
〉If one car have three doors at one side, the calculation is following:
〉THE POSSIBILITY = 1/30 * 1/10 * 1/2 * 1/3 = 1/1,800

〉Oh, this is bigger than your result of calcuration.
〉Did you made mistake or did I?

Genius, you two! @o@/~~~

Any at rate, you seem to get lucky.
Because you can stand in the tremendous odds.
Your Spring is just around the corner!

Thank you for the good story.
See you.